Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Well You Just Might Find You Get What You Need

I am not one to really write "off the cuff" rants on a whim.  I tend to write my posts ahead and do auto-posts.  But recently I have hit a real crisis in life.  For the past several years I have really enjoyed this Classic Country radio station.  They play Johnny Cash, Glenn Campbell, Waylon Jennings type stuff.  I had come across a classic country station once before, I think in Louisville, but obviously it's not a popular genre.  But then again, I'm not exactly a popular genre so we were two peas in a pod.  Bottom line, I loved the station.  Just the other day I noticed it was "dark" and then a few days later I turned it on and heard not the wonderful voice of Dolly Parton but the obnoxiousness of Ke$ha.  Yikes - apparently the station had changed programming.  Sorry, Ryan no music for you!

Anyway, I was listening to a classic rock station today instead and heard that Rolling Stones song and I guess for now that was "just what (I) need(ed)."

But today is not about that, it is about something I am sure you need; a political analysis by Ryan.  What, didn't you see how insightful my bowl game analysis was?  Oh wait, my predictions were pretty awful.  Oh well, I was crunching some numbers and had some thoughts and thought I would share.  Here goes.

So to watch MSNBC and Fox News you would think that politics is all about emotion.  Look at the Republican primaries up and down ebbs and flows.  Just now Santorum took back some momentum in Kansas this weekend and will likely battle Gingrich for the hearts and minds of Dixie in Mississippi and Alabama later this week.  Mitt said it's an "away game" so unless he or Jeff Foxworthy can convence folks down there that he is comfortable with saying "ya'll" and eating biscuits and grits, momentum will shift once again!  I am sure the bandwagon will be back to Santorum and the doomsayers will be after Romney once again.  Although late note Rasmussen polling has Twiddle Dee and Twiddle Dum splitting the conservative vote so Mitt might in fact get his knock-down punch today!

But reality is that politics may reflect emotion but it is in fact entirely about laws of gravity and motion.  The immovable object or the irresistible force inevitably dominate and win.  And I'm not just talking money it involves organization and ground game.  Like Sun Tsu's Ancient Art of War most political battles are won long before they are ever fought.

I was looking at the Republican Primary numbers this weekend hoping for a brokered convention.  The comedy would be so fun and of course I'm a left of center guy that will certainly vote for President Obama.  But in the numbers I found the immovable object - Romney.

Here they are:

Delegates to Date (before Kansas):
Romney - 415 or 36.3% of assigned delegates needed to win
Santorum - 176
Gingrich - 105
Paul - 47
Huntsman - 2 (likely to go to Romney)

Total = 745 or 34% of total delegates to be assigned

Romney is at 36% of the delegates needed after 34% of the total delegates have been assigned.  He is actually ahead of the pace with his best states ahead.  Delegate rich states like California and New York will only push Romney ahead of his current pace.  States like Kansas, Mississippi, and Alabama will not give Santorum the irresistible momentum to overcome the immovable object.  In fact Santorum just netted a +1 to the delegate count on Saturday because Mitt won in all those resort islands we own in the Pacific (maybe Mitt owns some investment properties there).

Additionally there are 86 unassigned Super Delegates which will mostly go to Romney and Huntsman's 2 will likely move to Romney at the convention.

To date Romney has collected 56% of the assigned delegates.  He need only win 729 of the remaining 1,453 (50%) delegates to win.  Again, at 56% to date he is ahead of the pace he needs to win the nomination with his best states still ahead.

So what that means is get used to Obama vs Romney.  As much as I would love to see the Republicans screw around with nominating someone as dopey as Santorum I do have to say I breath a sigh of relief.  As much as I won't vote for Romney I think I can live with him as President.  I do believe he is a decent and smart man who probably actually reads stuff like the New Yorker and listens to NPR and may consider science as a part of life.  He may be stiff and out of touch but he is not a "knuckle dragger/non-opposable thumber" like the rest of the Republican candidate pool.  Except for Ron Paul, I do like that he has changed the dialogue within the Republican Party around War and aggression.  Other than that he is interesting but spooky weird when he is talking about the Gold Standard and monetary policy.

That being said here is my prediction.  And remember my bowl game predictions that were completely awful so consider the source.

Obama beats Romney like a "wet stepchild"!  Sorry for my southern vernacular.  He may not win in an electoral landslide and may not even eclipse his electoral count of 2008 but I think he will win convincingly in the popular vote.

The Republicans in response will soberly assess that they are out of touch with the populous, right?

Wrong!  They will blame Romney and say once again Republicans never win when they run with a moderate.  They will say that if they had stayed to their convictions they would have inspired the base and won.  There will be second guessing galore and why didn't we talk Christie into running, etc.

Bottom line the Republican take-away will be more gridlock for 4 more years.

Until the next "most important election of our lifetime" (note sarcasm here) in 2016 when Hillary takes on Jeb Bush or as I might say Clinton/Bush II (The Final Countdown)!

Oh well, just some thoughts from someone who doesn't know what the hell they are talking about 50% of the time, is full of *hit 50% of the time, and just doen't have a clue the rest of the time.  :)

Oh and it's March Madness as well I guess I should make some predictions there as well!

My first prediction or rather note of reality.  Did you know that the Thursday and Friday of March Madness are the least productive working days in America!  Yep, a lot of goofing off and watching the scoreboard - sounds like a typical Ryan day.

Here goes (and as always I am using the pure logic of who has the hottest women):

Final Four
South:        Kentucky over Notre Dame; it's the official team of Ashley
West:         Missouri over Michigan State; Show Me Baby
East:          Florida State over Syracuse; can you say Spring Break 
Midwest:   North Carolina over Georgetown; some love to the home team but not too much

I like anyone named Ashley,  'nuff said!
Ahh, the pursuit of Academics!
Carolina Girl - best girl in the world!

Championship:   Kentucky over North Carolina 78-75

Potential Upset Alerts:

Notre Dame over Duke:  Notre Dame is a tough team from a tough conference; if they were playing on St. Patty's Day this would be a no-brainer.
New Mexico over Louisville and Michigan State:  I like the Lobos with Steve Alford at coach; no hot chicks at Michigan State (High School musical was set in Albuquerque - does that factor in here?)
Harvard over Vanderbilt:  or should I say Harvard vs the Harvard of the south; a lot of smart guys maybe Harvard still has some of the Linsanity left!
West Virginia over Gonzaga:  Gonzaga is the higher seed but WVU is playing a backyard game in Pittsburg (where is the fairness here?)
Creighton over North Carolina:  UNC is unpredictable and Creighton can shoot the lights out
Belmont over Georgetown:  Hoya's have a propensity to choke early; Belmont always shoots the lights out and Vince Gill is a fan and an awesome bluegrass picker!
St. Mary's over Kansas:  KU is always a good bet to choke at some point in the NCAA.

1 comment:

InnocentKinda said...

You underestimate michigan state... and the hot girls here.